基于熵权TOPSIS法的房地产业对新型城镇化通径分析——以海南省五指山市为例

Path Analysis of Real Estate to the New Urbanization Based on Entropy TOPSIS Method: A Case Study of Wuzhishan City of Hainan Province

以21世纪以来特别是"十二五"时期新型城镇化与房地产相关数据为样本,运用改进的熵权TOPSIS法对新型城镇化质量综合测度,采用通径分析法研究五指山市房地产各指标对新型城镇化的影响作用程度。结果表明:2009—2014年五指山的新型城镇化质量综合水平呈现稳步上升状态,始终处于中级与良好状态;2014年新型城镇化各指标发展程度由小到大依次为人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化、生活城镇化和社会城镇化,人口与土地始终是制约五指山新型城镇化快速发展的关键因素;商品房销售均价、房地产开发投资额、经济适用房总计划投资额与新型城镇化呈正相关,对新型城镇化的影响作用依次减小,新开工房屋面积与新型城镇化质量呈负相关,但影响作用程度较微弱。

Taking data of new urbanization and real estate in the 21st century especially ＂ Twelfth Five-Year Plan ＂ period as samples, the improved entropy method and TOPSIS method was applied to measure the new urban- ization quality comprehensively. Path analysis method was used to analyze the influence degree of the index of real estate on the new urbanization. Results show that ： The comprehensive level of the new urbanization has been steadi- ly rising and in intermediate and well condition in Wuzhishan City from 2009 to 2014. The development degree of each new urbanization indicator from small to large order is population urbanization, land urbanization, economic urbanization, lifestyle urbanization, social urbanization in 2014, population and land are the key factors restricting the rapid development of the new urbanization in Wuzhishan; Commercaial housing sales price, real estate develop- ment investment, economy applicable room total project investment are correlated to the new urbanization positively. Their impact on the new urbanization has been reduced successively. The new housing area is correlated with the new urbanization negatively but the impact is weak.