世界遗产地旅游产业结构演进及其对旅游经济的贡献——以山东省曲阜市为例

Evolution Process of Tourism Industrial Structure and Measurement on Its Contribution to Tourism Economy in the World Heritage Sites: The Evidence from Qufu City of Shandong Province

在世界遗产地旅游产业发展的动态背景下,运用偏离份额分析法和向量夹角法分别从产业结构的合理化和高级化两个视角衡量山东省曲阜市2006—2015年旅游产业结构的时序变化,测度曲阜市旅游产业结构变动对旅游经济发展的贡献。研究表明:曲阜市旅游产业有一定的结构优势但竞争力相对较弱,合理化水平有待提高;旅游产业结构的高级化水平虽然有升有降,但平均水平一直较高,表现出高位震荡的特征;旅游产业结构变动对旅游经济增长贡献度的均值为0.03,周期性震荡呈现收敛趋势,反映出曲阜市旅游经济发展趋于成熟。

Under the dynamic background of the tourism industrial development in the world heritage sites, the paper measures the temporal variation of the tourism industrial structure in Qufu City with the shift-share analy- sis method and the vector angle method separately from the angle of rationalization and sophistication of the industri- al structure. It also measures the contribution of the tourism industrial structure changes to the tourism economic de- velopment. The results show that, tourism industry in Qufu has certain advantages in structure and relatively weak competitiveness, its reasonable level needs to be improved. The sophisticate level of the tourism industrial structure varies, but it shows the characteristics of high turbulence with the relatively high average. The contribution of the tourism industrial structure changes to the tourism economic growth is periodic oscillation and the average is 0.03. It reflects the increasingly maturity of the tourism economic develooment.