河南省能源消费碳排放动态变化及空间分异

The Dynamics and Spatial Differentiation Research of Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in Henan Province

在分析河南省1978—2015年能源消费碳排放总量和结构变化的基础上,利用Im PACT等式对河南省碳排放驱动因素进行了研究和对未来碳排放量进行了情景预测,并运用空间自相关分析法探讨了空间分异特征。结果表明:(1)1978—2015年,河南省碳排放量总体上呈现增加的趋势,年均增长5.11%,由煤炭和石油消费导致的碳排放比重一直稳定在95%以上。(2)弹性分析表明人均真实GDP增加1%将导致人均能源消费量增加0.48%,利用强度下降0.52%,而环境影响增加0.53%。(3)保持经济增长的同时,与2011—2015年相比,1978—2015年效率年均增长率提高5.25倍,是河南省实现循环经济建设的一种可行方案。(4)河南省2015年碳排放全局Moran’s I值为0.047,呈微弱空间正相关,各地市碳排放具有明显的二元结构特征,空间集聚特征不明显。

The total carbon emissions from energy consumption of Henan Province from 1978 to 2015 were an- alyzed in this paper. Besides, it also discussed the structure of carbon emissions of Henan Province from 1978 to 2015. This paper made a research on the driving factors of carbon emissions in Henan Province from 1978 to 2015 and carbon emissions in the future were predicted. And the paper also discussed the spatial differentiation character- istics of carbon emissions from energy consumption of Henan Province by spatial autocorrelation method. From 1978 to 2015, the total amount of carbon emissions in Henan Province showed an increasing trend. The carbon emissions increased 5.11% annually. The proportion of carbon emission caused by coal and petroleum were steadily above 95%. Elasticity analysis show that when the real per capita GDP increases 1% in Henan Province, the amount of energy consumption per capita will increase 0.48%, while the use intensity of energy will decrease 0.52% and the environment impact will increase 0.53%. In the condition of energy structure optimization, the efficiency has an im- portant influence to achieve circle economy. While maintaining economic growth, the average annual growth rate of efficiency increase of 5.25 times on the basis of 2011--2015 is a viable option. Spatial differentiation researches show that the global Moran＇ s I is 0.047, which reflects that carbon emissions of Henan Province shows a weak space positive correlation. Around the cities of Henan Province, carbon emissions have a typical dual structure and the characteristics of spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions is not obvious in 2015.