城市规模与农民工储蓄率关系探讨

A Discussion on Relation between Urban Size and Migrant Workers' Saving Ratio

合理的城市规模和农民工高储蓄率的成因一直都是学界讨论的热点话题。基于覆盖范围较广的国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据,分析了就业地城市规模对农民工储蓄率的影响。研究发现:就业地的城市人口规模与农民工的储蓄率正相关;在超大城市就业的农民工的储蓄率显著高于其他城市;超大城市农民工的储蓄率与特大城市的差距要大幅高于特大城市与中小城市的差距。十八届三中全会提出要控制特大城市人口规模,贯彻落实十八届三中全会精神,探讨城市规模管控不仅可以缓解"大城市病",而且可以释放农民工的消费潜力。

A reasonable urban size and the cause of migrant workers＇ high saving ratio are the hot topic discussed by academic circle all the time. Based on the wide-ranging dynamic monitoring data of migrant population by National Health and Family Planning Commission of the PRC （NHFPC） in 2013 and 2015, this article analyzes the influence of the size of the city where the migrant workers obtain employment on their ratio, which finds that the population size in the city where the migrant workers obtain employment is positively correlated to thir saving ratio, in which especially the saving ratio of the migrant workers who obtain employment in megaeity behemoth is significantly higher than in other cities in China; the gap in migrant workers＇ saving ratio between megacity behemoth and megalopolis is also much higher than such a gap between megalopolis and middle-sized ＆ small city. According to the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of CPC in which the control of the population size in megacity behemoth was issued, the implementation of this plenary session＇ s guiding opinion of the control pf urban size can not only relief the ＂metropolitan disease＂, but also can release migrant worker＇ s consumption potential.