产业结构、贸易开放与M2/GDP比例关系研究——基于发达经济体与新兴市场国家的实证检验

Industrial Structure, Openness to Trade and the Ratio of M2/GDP

在后金融危机时代,全球M2/GDP比例的持续上升态势引起经济学家及各国货币政策制定者的格外关注,并对其与宏观经济运行的关系加以深入探讨。本文利用69个国家和地区1991~2014年间的面板数据资料,区别不同经济发展程度的国别群体,通过面板数据的平稳性检验、协整分析和构建误差修正模型,检验产业结构、贸易开放与经济增长等因素变量与M2/GDP比例的长期均衡及短期因果关系,并以此为依据提出有利于经济发展的经济货币化政策和建议。

In the post-crisis era,the high ratio of M2/GDP in a rising trend in the world has been concerned by economists and monetary policymakers, and the relation between it and the operation of macro economy is discussed. This paper uses the panel data of 69 countries and regions during 1991~2014, distinguished between developed and emerging economies, through panel data stationarity test, cointegration analysis and error correction model constructed, we empirically analyze the long-run equilibrium relationship and short-term causal relationship among industrial structure, trade openness, economic growth and the ratio of M2/GDP. Based on this, we put forward the favorable monetary policies and suggestions on economic development.