两种计划免疫苗种需求预测模型

Two Kinds of Mathematical Models With Expanding Planning Immune for Forecasting

全文分两部分,第一部分指出计划免疫苗种需求与总和生育率及生育模式的直接关系,应用一种婴儿出生数计算式及胎次率人口系统模型,提出一种苗种需求模型;第二部分利用数方法,提出一种比较实用的苗种需求模型。

This paper contants of two parts. In the first part we point that the relationship between EPI and the total fertility rate and the fertility mode. We obatined a kind of EPI requireing model using a method which a mathematical moldel with percentage disfribution of birth order for population systems. In part two we showed another form of requirening model that easily be applied to forecast by using mathematical method.