金融杠杆、房地产价格与金融稳定性——基于基于SVAR模型的实证研究

Financial Leverage, Real Estate Price and Financial Stability--Empirical Research Based on SVAR Model

本文基于我国2000年1月—2016年12月的相关经济数据,运用主成分分析法设置了金融稳定性指标,在此基础上构建了金融杠杆、房地产价格与金融稳定性变量的SVAR模型。研究了金融杠杆与房地产价格的相互关系,以及其分别对金融稳定性的影响。结论表明:金融杠杆与房地产价格存在相互促进的关系,并且二者的攀升都不利于金融系统的稳定。所以,我国现阶段应采取"去杠杆"和遏制房地产价格过快上涨的政策,以及要合理抑制房地产价格与金融杠杆两者相互刺激的长效机制等,以利于调控房地产价格水平和维护金融系统的稳定。

This paper based on China＇s relevant economic data from January 2000 to December 2016, uses the principal component analysis method to set the financial stability index. On this basis, the SVAR model of financial leverage, real estate prices and financial stability is constructed to study the relationship between financial leverage and real estate prices, and the im- pact of each of them on financial stability. The conclusion shows that, financial leverage and real estate prices have a mutually re- inforcing relationship, and the rising of them is not conducive to the stability of the financial system. Therefore, China should adopt the policy of ＂deleveraging＂ and curb the rapid rise of real estate prices at this stage, and should try to suppress the mechanism of mutual promotion between real estate price and financial leverage. This is not only beneficial to the control of real estate prices, but also conducive to the stability of the financial system.