基于BB算法的左截断威布尔分布可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Left-truncated Weibull Distribution Modified by BB Algorithm

针对寿命分布类型和参数估计方法问题,对国内某航空公司现役机型B737-800飞机主起落架减振支柱漏油故障数据进行可靠性分析。结合数据类型特点,初步预判其寿命分布类型可能为左截断两参数威布尔分布、对数正态分布、指数分布。基于极大似然估计法分别估计三种分布的未知参数,并利用根据BB算法改进的柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫假设检验(K-S检验)法判断其寿命分布类型。实证分析结果表明,采用左截断两参数威布尔分布来拟合是合适的,并提出了具体维修建议。

A reliability analysis was done based on the failure data of B737-800 main landing gear shock strut oil leakages herein,which came from a domestic airlines＇electronic records,in consideration of the life distribution type and parameter estimation method.The characteristics of data preliminarily demonstrated that the life distribution type might be left-truncated two parameter Weibull distribution,logarithmic normal distribution or exponential distribution.Next,the parameters corresponding to three types of distributions were estimated by using the MLE method.Then,the Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）hypothesis test,which modified by BB algorithm and goodness-of-fit test,was used to identify and confirm the life distribution function model.The analysis results show that the distribution of the data is left-truncated two parameter Weibull distribution.In the end,reasonable maintenance plan and optimized maintenance scheme are provided.