长江三峡枢纽船舶待闸停时经济损失估算

Estimation of Economic Loss from Vessel Stopping at Navigation Lock of Yangtze River Three Gorges Dam

分析了船舶营运成本、货物运输时间价值、货物经时损失及货物运输风险等相关影响因素,在此基础上构建了分船型船舶待闸停时经济损失模型;最后,基于Arena建立仿真模型,预测三峡枢纽船舶待闸停时,并对船舶待闸经济损失进行估算。估算结果表明,船舶待闸年均经济损失高达30亿元。

In this paper, we analyzed such relevant influence factors as vessel operation cost, time value of cargo in transit, gradual loss of cargo and transportation risk of cargo, etc., and then on such basis, established the type-specific economic loss model of vessels stopped at navigation lock. At the end, through Arena simulation, we forecast the stopping time of the vessels at the navigation lock of the Yangtze River Three Gorges Dam and estimated the economic loss therefrom.