2030：中国能否领导全球治理

China's Leadership in Global Governance in 2030

当今世界高度互联、彼此依赖、复杂不定,面临着核战争、气候变化等一系列重大问题造成的现实威胁和严峻挑战。到2030年,中国将在应对这些问题的全球集体行动中扮演领导者和积极参与者的角色。凭借不断增强、扩展的能力,中国可以和其他几个强国并肩而列,真正成为顶尖国家。无论在传统还是新兴领域,脆弱性的迅速增加、广泛扩展、国际互联,将促使中国朝着合作性强国的方向变化,根深蒂固的反帝国主义、不干涉主义价值观,后文革时代的儒家思想,缓慢开放的国内经济与社会,以及领导人对民众需求的敏感性,都是有利于这一变化的因素。中国的外交政策会因此更具合作趋向和全球视野,聚焦于国际机制、主导理念的适应和创新。由此,崛起中的中国将为2030年全球治理的共同领导创造一种多边合作关系。

By 2030 China will be a leading power and participant in the collective global response to the central, existential threats of nuclear war and climate change, and other major issues confronting an intensely interconnected, inter-vulnerable, complex, and uncertain world. China＇s strengthening, spreading capabilities will propel it comprehensively into the top tier, joining several other powers there. China＇s rapidly rising, sectorally spreading, internationally interconnected vulnerabilities, in both traditional and new tbrms, will push it toward cooperative partnership at the top. China＇s embedded values of anti-imperialist non-intervention and post-Cultural Revolution Confucianism will reinforce this path. So will its slowly opening domestic economy and society, and its leadership＇s sensitivity to its citizens＇ demands. The result will be a largely cooperative, global foreign policy, focused on adapting old and building new international institutions and dominant ideas. A rising China will thus produce a plurilateral partnership for co- leadership in global governance for the 2030 world.