特朗普时代的中美潜在冲突:全球化的隐患

Sino-American Potential Conflict in the Trump Times: Hidden Dangers of Globalization

中美经济的双向关系类似于心理学中"相互依赖"的概念。这种关系始自毛泽东与尼克松的首次接触,巩固于双方在各自艰难的发展历程中生发出的相互需要感。未来,这种关系很可能也将如过去几十年一般,继续发挥深刻作用。离开中国,美国的繁荣难以想象。中美关系并非特例,经济互赖的某些特征普遍存在于世界主要经贸关系中,这种关系也隐藏着破坏性基因。全球化的多边特征已经造成中美许多冲突,且还将继续下去,因为全球化自有其弊端。理论过时不是全球化面临的唯一危机,世界贸易近期趋势也在不断发出警告。随着"美国第一"原则的提出,不少人相信中国很快将取代美国,成为全球贸易乃至全球经济的领导者。但事情没有那么简单,世界领袖的接力棒不会交接得如此顺利。中国目前的首要任务是通过改革和新规解决国内发展不平衡的问题,绕过这个阶段而盲目寻求世界大国地位是严重的战略错误。国内实力决定国际领导力,特朗普治下的美国正在重新认识这个道理。

The two-way relationship between China and the US is similar to the concept of ＂interdependence＂ in psychology. This relationship begins with the first contact between Mao Zedong and Nixon, and is consolidated by the mutual needs of both sides in their difficult development course. In the future, this relationship is likely to continue to play a profound role as in the past few decades. Without China, the prosperity of the US could be impossible. The Sino-US relationshipis not exceptional, and some of the characteristics of economic interdependence are prevalent in the world＇s major economic and trade relations, and this relationship also has hidden destructive genes. The multilateral features of globalization have caused many conflicts between China and the US, and this will continue, because globalization has its own drawbacks. Theoretical outdatedness is not the only crisis facing globalization, and recent trends in world trade are constantly giving warnings. As the ＂America first＂ principle is introduced, many people believe that China will soon replace the US to become the global trade and global economic leader. But things are not thateasy the world leader baton will not be passed smoothly to the successor. China＇s current primary task is to solve the problem of domestic development imbalance through reform and new regulations, and bypassing this stage and blindly seeking the status of the world great power is a serious strategic error. The nationalstrength determinesinternational leadership, and the US under the rule of Trump is learning this truth again.