农村金融发展对城乡收入差距影响的实证研究——基于ARDL-ECM模型

The Empirical Analysis of the Impect of Rural Financial Development on the Rural- Urban Income Gap——Based on ARDL- ECM Model

基于中国1978—2015年的年度数据,采用协整检验和自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)方法,对我国农村金融发展与城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现,在控制其他变量的前提下,中国农村金融发展水平与城乡收入差距之间存在均衡关系,但"倒U型"假说在我国农村金融发展过程中并未得到验证,农村金融发展水平的提高显著扩大了城乡收入差距。为此,我国政府应重点关注惠农资金流向问题,进一步完善农村金融体系。

The paper is to examine the relationship between urban - rural income gap and rural financial development using annual data from 1978 to 2015 in China by implementing the autoregressive distributed lag（ARDL） approach to co - integration. The study find that there is a long - term e- quilibrium relationship between urban - rural income gap and rural financial development, and no matter in the long or the short term, the rural fi- nancial development level significantly expand the urban -rural income gap, but the ＂inverted U＂ hypothesis in the process of the rural financial development of our country has not been verified. To this end, China＇s rural financial reform should focus on problem of rural ＇financial repression and further strengthening the construction of rural financial system in agricultural modernization reform.