基础设施资本存量与经济增长关系研究

Infrastructure Capital Stock Measurement and Economic Growth

按照世界银行的分类,将基础设施建设分为经济类基础设施和社会类基础设施。长久以来社会类基础设施的发展和重要性受到一定的忽视,社会类基础设施资本存量核算数据缺失,使用永续盘存法分别核算两类基础设施1953-2014年的资本存量,并在此基础上通过向量自回归模型分析分类基础设施资本存量与实际GDP之间的关系。研究发现,社会类基础设施与经济类基础设施一样,对经济发展具有不可忽略的促进作用。然而,我国经济增长却仅对经济类基础设施的发展有促进作用,而对社会类基础设施的拉动相对有限。

According to the classification of the World Bank, infrastructure can be divided into economic infrastructure and social infrastructure, while the latter had been lack of effective estimation for long time. Therefore, we measured China s two kinds of infrastructure capital stock on na- tional level from 1953 to 2008 by using the adjusted official statistical data and perpetual inventory method respectively for the first step. On this ba- sis, we analyzed the relationship between the infrastructure capital stock and the actual GDP with a vector auto regression model. The result sugges- ted that social infrastructure has a positive impact on economic development, as considerable as economic infrastructure does. However, in China, Economic growth can promote the development of economic infrastructure and has limited impact on social infrastructure.