基于改进GM(1,1)模型的能源消费预测研究

Prediction of Energy Consumption Based on Optimized GM(1,1) Model

合理、科学地对能源消费进行预测可为能源政策的制定提供参考,借鉴非线性回归技术,建立了2000年~2015年中国能源消费的非线性GM(1,1)模型,进一步采用改进的GM(1,1)模型预测了2016年~2020年中国的能源消费。结果表明:改进后的模型精度更高、误差更小,进一步验证了模型的有效性和合理性。

To forecast the energy consumption can be reasonably and scientifically to provide reference for the establishment of energy policy, using nonlinear regression technique, established a 2000 -2015China′ s energy consumption of the nonlinear GM（1,1） model, further with the improved GM（1,1）model to predict the 2016-2020 China′s energy consumption. The results show that the improved model is more accurate and less error, and further validates the validity and rationality of the model.