我国大中城市房地产泡沫测度与分化研究——以中国35个大中城市为例

Real Estate Bubble Measurement and Difference Analysis in large and medium cities——Taking 35 “large and medium” sized cities in China as an Example

为了给各地房地产宏观调控政策的制定提供依据,本文以均衡价格为基础,引入房地产市场的局部均衡模型,对我国35个城市的房地产泡沫进行测度,并根据新的城市规模划分标准,将其划分为超大、特大和大型城市,运用泰尔指数对这三类城市的房地产泡沫分化现象进行了分析。结果表明:现阶段我国大型城市的房地产泡沫的内部差异程度明显高于超大和特大城市,而且大型城市中沿海城市的差异性尤其明显。但整体而言,这三大类型城市间的差异在逐渐缩小。

In order to provide the basis for the establishment of macro-control policies for real estate in various places, based on the equilibrium price, this paper introduces the partial equilibrium model of the real estate market, and measures the real estate bubble of 35 cities in China, then according to the new standard of city size, the 35 cities are divided into super large, extra large and large cities, and the difference of the real estate bubble in these three kinds of cities is analyzed by using the rheil index. The results show that the internal difference of the real estate bubble in large cities is much higher than that of the super large and extra large cities, and the difference of coastal cities in large cities is especially obvious. On the whole, the difference between the three major cities is narrowing gradually.