城市地下综合管廊PPP项目收益研究——基于系统动力学方法的分析

Study on the Benefit of PPP Project in Underground Comprehensive Corridor Based on the System Dynamics

在我国城市市政基础设施建设现代化发展进程中,地下综合管廊的建设日益受到重视。城市地下综合管廊建设、运营过程中采用政府与社会资本合作模式,可提高项目管理效率。同时,项目收益是双方合作中注重的关键问题。本文利用系统动力学的方法,分析地下综合管廊PPP项目收益及其相关的因果关系,构建其收益系统动力学模型;采用实际案例数据,运用Vensim PLE软件进行仿真模拟;利用敏感性分析考察相关因素对项目收益的影响;在保证合理收益的基础上,得到管廊特许经营期的最低标准,管廊日常维护费、财政可行性缺口补贴的调节比例范围,并由此提出相关建议。

In the process of modernization of municipal infrastructure construction, the construction of underground comprehensive corridor has been paid more and more attention. The Public-Private Partnership（PPP） mode in the process of construction and operation can improve the efficiency of project management. The project of project is the key issue in the corporation. By analyzing the benefit-related causality of underground comprehensive corridor PPP project, a system dynamics model of the benefit is constructed with the use of system dynamics. Based on the data of an case, run the simulation with the use of Vensim PLE software. With the use of sensitivity analysis, study on the relevant factors about the impact of the project benefit. Under the premise of reasonable benefit, the conclusion consists the lowest level of franchise management period, the adjustment range of the daily maintenance fee and feasibility gap subsidy, and the suggestions are put forward.