城镇化进程中我国房地产价格波动特征研究——基于区域差异性视角的考察

A Study on Characteristics of China's Housing Price Fluctuation——Based on the Perspective of Regional Differences

随着我国城镇化进程的加快,房地产价格呈现持续且快速的增长态势,区域间的房产价格逐渐表现出区域差异化的特点。为了全面深入分析各区域房地产价格差异化的主要影响因素,本文将具有不同分异特性的区域按照一线城市与二、三线城市进行划分,构建了两维度整体分析框架,提出采用随机森林法进行异常点度量和特征变量选取,设计不同类城市房地产价格差异化影响因素的Logistic回归模型,对影响方式和影响程度进行深入的定量分析。结果表明在所选择的24个分析变量中影响显著的有11个因素。研究结果为我国城镇化进程中探究房价差异化的影响因素,引导房地产市场健康发展,提供了新的分析方法与实际指导作用。

With the speeding up of urbanization process in China, real estate price presents a sustained and rapid growth, and housing price gradually shows the variation characteristic. To examine the major factors that influence housing price variation, we built a two-dimensional analytical framework, measure abnormal points and select characteristic value using random forest algorithm, and conduct logistic regression model on influence factors of housing price variation. The result indicates that 24 out of ii variables are significant. The finding offers new analytical methods and practical guiding function to guide healthy development of the real estate market.