印度未来石油需求对中国的影响初探：基于中印两国合作视角

Apreliminary study for the impact of India's future oil demand to China:based on the cooperation between China and India

中印等新兴经济体的崛起使亚太地区成为重要的石油消费中心。随着未来两国的石油需求增加和国际石油市场的动荡,石油供应安全问题将成为中印重大挑战。在介绍中印石油消费现状与贸易现状的基础上,通过H指数和风险指数分析了印度2006~2015年原油进口来源变化,结果显示风险指数与其进口来源多元化具有明显的负相关性。印度得益于石油资源的全球配置战略,实现了石油进口的多元化,大幅降低了原油进口风险指数。未来中印在原油供应上必然存在竞争,对于两国而言进口来源地的高度重合机遇大于挑战,两国应该加强境外获取石油领域的合作,共同维护稳定的石油供应环境。

The rise of emerging economies such as China and India has made the Asia-Pacific region become an important oil consumption center. With the future increase in oil demand and the international oil market turmoil,oil supply security issues will become a major challenge for China and India. Based on the present situation of China and India^s oil consumption and trade status, the paper analyzes the change of the source of crude oil in India from 2006 to 2015 through H index and risk index. The results show that the risk index has a negative correlation with the diversification of its import source. India benefited from the global allocation strategy for oil resources, to achieve a diversification of oil imports, significantly reducing the crude oil import risk index. In the future, China and India will inevitably compete in the supply of crude oil. For the two countries, the high coinciding with the source of imports makes the chance greater than the challenge. The two countries should strengthen cooperation in the field of oil and jointly maintain a stable oil supply environment.