促进社会去杠杆的财政政策研究——国际经验和可行性测算

Fiscal Policies for Promoting Social Deleveraging:International Experience and Feasibility Estimation

我国当前的债务形势具有债务规模迅速上升、私人部门债务占比偏大、与房地产相关的债务规模过大三个特点,潜藏风险。文章总结了国际上常用的以财政政策促进私人部门去杠杆的路径和典型经验,并着重分析了美国在本轮金融危机中以财政加杠杆推进社会去杠杆的具体政策。在此基础上,运用跨期预算约束方法,测算我国财政赤字的可持续性,讨论以财政赤字推动社会去杠杆的可行性。实证结果显示,我国政府拥有清偿债务的能力,具备扩大财政赤字以降低社会杠杆率的条件。为此,要在对财政状况进行谨慎评估和校准的基础上,采取定向的财政干预政策,以有效修复私人部门资产负债表,同时发挥各类政策之间的协同作用,实现调控中的成本效益最大化。

The three developments of the debt market in China today - debt is rising rapidly, private sector debt accounts for a large proportion, and a huge debt is related to real estate - result in potential risks. This paper reviews internationally used paths and experiments for promoting social deleveraging by fiscal adding leverage, and emphatically analyzes specific fiscal policies of propelling social deleveraging used by the United States in this financial crisis. On the basis of the above work, feasibility of using fiscal deficits to relieve social leverage in China is tested by analyzing sustainability of deficits using the intertemporal budget constraint method. The results show that the Chinese government is able to pay off debts and expand fiscal deficits to reduce social le- verage. To this end, on the basis of carefully evaluating and calibrating the fiscal situation, targeted fiscal inter- ventions should be taken to repair private sector balance sheets effectively. The synergistic effects of all kinds of policies should be realized to maximize cost - effectiveness in the process of regulation and control.