财政政策、腐败与经济增长:理论分析与现实考察

Fiscal Policy,Corruption and Economic Growth:A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Investigation

文章将腐败对财政政策的"污染"引入内生经济增长分析框架,发现腐败会扭曲财政政策的作用效果,综合影响则取决于腐败引致的促进和抑制作用强度的相对大小。为识别腐败通过影响税收结构调整对经济增长产生的扭曲作用,文章利用2003~2013年中国省域面板数据进行实证分析。结果表明:在稳定税负的条件下,提高转移性支出占比会抑制经济增长,但不同地区之间存在一定程度的差异;腐败在一定程度上抵消了提高资本所得和消费税率对经济增长产生的抑制作用。这些发现有助于丰富既有研究有关腐败与财政政策作用于经济增长的实践认知。

This paper analyzes with the endogenous growth model how corruption pollutes fiscal policy. The authors find that corruption distorts fiscal policy, but the results are uncertain, which ultimately depends on the relative strength of the positive and negative effect. Based on 2003 -2013 provincial data in China, the empirical study identifies whether corruption distorts the growth effect of tax structural adjustments, and results show that against the background of stable tax burdens, increasing the ratio of transfer expenditure will inhibit economic growth. However, there exist degrees of disparity between regions. Corruption has a significant positive effect on economic growth as it influences the tax rate of capital gains and consumption.