煤层底板突水危险性变权评价理论及其工程应用

Risk Evaluation of Coal Floor Water Inrush Based on Variable Weight Theory and Its Application

利用基于GIS的多源信息融合技术对煤层底板突水危险性进行评价是近年来的研究热点,在中国的多个煤矿进行了广泛的应用.但是现行的评价方式以常权评价方式为主,这种以固定不变的权重来反映变化状态值对突水的影响作用具有明显的局限性,无法刻画水文地质条件突变对底板突水的控制作用,所以本文将变权理论引入煤层底板突水评价领域.本文阐述了变权理论对于底板突水评价的意义,分析了煤层底板突水变权评价的特点,证明了构建的变权模型符合变权理论的定义约束条件.同时结合兖州兴隆庄煤矿实例,从评价效果图和评价单元格对比分析了变权评价模型和常权评价模型评价结果的差异,论证了煤层底板突水变权评价模的先进性,可以有效提高多源信息融合技术评价煤层底板突水的准确度.

Risk evaluation of coal floor water inrush by multi-information fusion technology based on GIS is research hotspot in recent years, the method were also widely used in many coal mine. However, current evaluation methods are mainly constant weight evaluation methods, in this method, the constant weights are used to reflect the role of variation state values for water inrush,which unable to depict control action of hydrogeological conditions mutation for water inrush, so variable weight theory was introduced in the field of water inrush evaluation in this paper. This paper explained the significance of variable weight theory for coal floor water inrush evaluation, analyzed the characteristics of coal floor water inrush variable weight evaluation model, demonstrated the variable weight model constructed meet the the requirements of variable weight theory. Combined with instance of Xinglong coal mine water inrush evaluation, evaluation map and typical evaluation cell were compared to analysis advanced nature of variable weightsevaluation model,which can effectively improve the accuracy of evaluate risk of coal floor water inrush by muhi-information fusion technology.