舟山海域海上搜救演习及目标跟踪预报结果分析

A marine search and rescue exercise in Zhoushan sea area and analysis of target trajectory forecast

为检验海上搜救预报模型,国家海洋局东海分局在舟山岛北部的黄泽洋海域进行了海上搜救演习,基于预报风场、流场,采用Leeway搜救模型对搜救目标的轨迹进行预报模拟.搜救目标受潮流和风的影响,漂移轨迹总体为东南—西北走向并呈顺时针旋转的螺旋.搜救模拟结果基本反映了这种漂移特征,但仍存在一定误差,这种误差主要是由海流预报误差导致的.通过后报模拟试验发现,Leeway模型在目标物逆风漂流阶段,特别是流速较小或转向时段的模拟准确度相对较低.

To test the search and rescue forecast model,a search and rescue exercise was conducted by East China Sea Branch of State Oceanic Administration in Huangzeyang sea area,north of Zhoushan Island. The Leeway model was used to forecast simulate the target trajectories based on the predicted wind field and current field. Influenced by the wind and current,the targets drifted along southeast-northwest clockwise spiral pathes. The feature of the trajectories is revealled by the forecast model with errors,which are indeced mostly by the current forecast. By the hindcast simulation test,it is found that the simulation accuracy of Leeway model is relatively low for the target movement against with wind direction,especially for small flow rate or during steering time.