“十三五”时期我国产业新增长点的甄别与发展策略

The Screening and Development Strategy of the New Growth Points of China's Industry during the 13th Five-year Plan Period

当前,对"十三五"时期产业新增长点的选择及如何培育壮大存在众多争论。按照增速和规模、影响力、符合供需条件变化、国际动态比较优势四项标准,从十余项备选清单中甄别出健康、文化、节能环保与新能源、新一代信息技术、高端装备制造和旅游业等六大领域,是"十三五"时期最有可能发展成为新兴支柱产业的新增长点,预计2020年产值规模可达60万亿元~80万亿元,占同期GDP比重18%~25%。在此基础上,分析"十三五"时期产业新增长点发展面临的共性问题与制约因素,明确加快培育壮大产业新增长点、构筑经济增长新动力的发展愿景与目标,政策规划的重点应为厘清政府和市场边界、坚持市场主体培育产业新增长点,强化产业新增长点供需两端的政策支持,因"业"制宜绘制"产业改革路线图",营造有利于产业新增长点涌现更迭的制度环境。

At present, there are many debates on how to cultivate the new 13th five -year plan period. According to the four standards including growth growth point of industry in the rate and scale, influence, sup- ply and demand conditions and international dynamic comparative advantages, the six major areas, namely health, culture, energy saving ＆ environmental protection and new energy, a new generation of information technology, high - end equipment manufacturing and tourism, are the most likely to become new growth pillar industries in the 13th five - year plan period. It is expected that the annual output value of the six areas in 2020 will reach 60 trillion to 80 trillion RMB yuan, accounting for 18% -25% of GDP in the same period. On this basis, the paper analyzes the common problems and constraints of the development of industrial new growth point of the ＂13th Five - Year Plan＂ period, ating the cultivation of new growth proposes the development vision and objectives of acceler- points and strengthening the new impetus of economic growth. Policy should focus on clarifying the government and market boundary, adhering to the market subject to foster new growth point of industry, strengthening the policy support of demand and supply, drawing ＂industrial reform road map＂ and creating a favorable institutional environment for the new growth point of the industry to emerge.