金融系统深化下保险业发展的经济增长效应差异——基于时变面板平滑转换回归模型

The Different Economic Growth Effect from Our Country Insurance Market in Financial Deepening——Based on Time-Varying Panel Smooth Transitional Regression Model

近些年来,保险业在金融市场中的作用凸显,保险业发展对经济增长的影响明显增强,但由于各地金融系统差异及保险业发展不均衡,保险业的经济增长效应存在较大差异。在存在差异条件下,地区金融规模、金融风险的变化,是否导致保险业的非线性经济增长效应,其动态变化特征怎样等,值得深入研究。结合时变面板平滑转换回归模型,构建包括金融系统因素和宏观经济基本面因素的非线性框架,重点考察在金融系统深化情况下,我国30个省(市、自治区)2000-2015年保险业发展对经济增长的渐进影响效应及传递路径。研究发现,金融发展水平越高的区域,其金融系统的资金配置效率和投资效率也更有效,保险业对经济增长具有强拉动效应,其中寿险的融资功能比财险经济补偿功能更具经济增长效应;而地区金融风险程度增高,则会大幅度提高该区域金融系统的投资风险,进而弱化财险和寿险对经济增长的正效应。最后提出了现阶段深化金融改革与管控金融风险的若干建议。

With the role of insurance in financial markets is increasingly important, insurance boosts eco-nomic growth. But the difference in financial system and insurance development cause big differences in the e-conomic growth. Then, this paper uses the dynamic panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the relationship between Insurance and Economic growth for thirty countries in a nonlinear framework. This paper construct a nonlinear model introducing financial system and macroeconomic fundamentals factors, and then a-nalysis the effect to the economic growth from the insurance market development. The estimated results show that the more efficient of financial system, insurance consumption has a strong pulling effect on economic growth, while Life insurance has more economic growth than insurance effect. The higher degree of regional fi-nancial risk will improve financial defaults and investment risk, and then cause the effect of weakening proper-ty casualty economic compensation function on the real economy. At the same time, it prevents life insurance capital to invest the real economy, thus squeezing out investment and consumption, and will cause negative effects on economic growth. At last this paper puts forward some policy enlightenment.