海洋与气象防灾减灾体系中社区恢复力的 评估与应用

Community Resilience Assessment with Application to Marine and Meteorological Disaster Mitigation

自然灾害对于人类所造成的危害和威胁正日益加剧。导致成千上万人死亡以及数万亿美元经济损失的超级灾害频发表明人类面对自然灾害的脆弱性。脆弱性和恢复力是防灾减灾研究中的两个相关的重要概念,但迄今没有统一的定义。脆弱性是衡量一个系统受灾之后有可能受到的破坏程度,而恢复力则是衡量一个系统抵御灾害和灾后恢复的能力。受自然灾害影响的系统可分为生态系统、工程系统(房屋设施)和社会系统。对于不同的系统,恢复力有着不同的具体含义和评估方法。对于一个社区而言,恢复力包含了抗灾和灾后重建、恢复的能力。恢复力既可以描述一个社区某一时刻的状态,也可以认为是社区应对自然灾害的一个持续过程,或者两者兼而有之。不同的定义决定评估方法和评估指标的选择不同。从实用角度讲,人们更愿意将恢复力看成是一个社区应对自然灾害从灾前防御到灾后重建、应变,到应对下一次灾害的整个过程。当一个自然灾害发生后,一个社区应对灾害的脆弱性和恢复力决定是否会进一步引发自然灾难以及灾难的程度。在灾害发生以前增强恢复力、降低灾害风险,以及在灾后反思和改进今后的应对措施,进一步增强恢复力,对于社区重建的质量与速度都有着重要意义。重点评述社区恢复力的评估及其在美国防灾减灾体系中的应用,并通过飓风安德鲁(Andrew)和卡特里娜(Katrina)个例加以说明。

The explosive growth of economic activities in the coastal zone and human exploration of marine resources led to rapid increases of the exposure of human life and property to the threat of marine disasters. As a result, marine disaster prevention, reduction and mitigation become an increasing challenge facing the human society. A risk is a vulnerable condition which may turn into a disaster. Understanding the vulnerability of a region and building resilience are steps that can be taken to prevent a risk from turning into a disaster or to minimize disaster impact. Risk management becomes disaster management when a disaster is eminent, occurring or has occurred. For an eminent disaster, such as those associated with a landfalling tropical cyclone, disaster management decisions depend on solid information from disaster prediction to social, economic, and geographic conditions. During and shortly after the occurrence of a disaster, search and rescue becomes the core of action, followed by recovery and resilience building measures. In this article, marine and weather disaster management strategies and methods for vulnerability analysis and resilience building are discussed by using past cases as illustrations.