基于ESDA的中国劳动力人口空间分布特征及其影响因素研究

Research on the Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Labor Force Population In China Based on ESDA and Its Influencing Factors

作为生产和消费的主体,劳动力人口的总量、结构与空间分布状态对经济发展有着重要影响。文章将空间地理因素引入到中国劳动力人口的区域分布问题当中,借助ESDA分析方法,基于第五次和第六次全国人口普查数据对我国31个省市自治区的劳动力人口空间分布特征进行探析。研究结果表明:第一,从时间维度来看,我国劳动力人口比重在不断提高,其中北京、上海、天津、广东、内蒙古等地区的劳动力人口比重上升趋势最为显著;第二,从空间维度来看,劳动力人口比重在省份之间存在明显的正相关关系,即劳动力人口比重较高的省份,其周围省份的劳动力人口比重也较高,反之亦然,但是这种集聚程度,随着时间的推移有所减弱,另一方面,局域内的劳动力人口分布集聚类型中以吉林、北京为中心的"高-高"集聚和以云南、贵州、四川为中心的"低-低"集聚的马太效应特征十分明显;第三,通过构建空间误差模型分析劳动力人口空间分布的影响因素,发现经济发展水平与交通设施对劳动力人口比重分别有正向作用和负向作用,更进一步地分析可知,交通设施阻碍劳动力人口比重的增加,可能是由于"大城市病"、"城归"回乡的创业潮以及农村获取异地资源便捷性增强等多方因素共同造成。

As the main body of production and consumption,the total population,structure and spatial distribution of labor force have an important influence on economic development. This paper analyzes the spatial pattern of labor force population in 31 provinces and autonomous regions based on the fifth and sixth national census data by means of ESDA analysis method,which introduces the spatial and geographical factors into the regional distribution of China's labor force population. The results show that: firstly,from the time dimension,the proportion of labor force in China is increasing,among which Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangdong,Inner Mongolia and other regions have the most significant increase in the proportion of labor force population. Secondly,from the spatial dimension,there is a clear positive correlation between the proportion of the labor force in the provinces,that is,the provinces with a higher proportion of the labor force,the proportion of the labor force in the surrounding provinces is higher,and vice versa. The degree of agglomeration has weakened with the passage of time. On the other hand,the 'high-high'agglomeration in Jilin and Beijing as the center of the labor force population accumulation in the local area is very obvious,and the characteristics of the 'low-low'gather in Yunnan,Guizhou and Sichuan are obvious too. Thirdly,by analyzing the influencing factors of spatial distribution of labor force by constructing spatial error model,it is found that the level of economic development and traffic facilities have positive and negative effects on the proportion of labor force.Further analysis,the increase in the proportion of traffic facilities to the labor force population may be due to the 'Big City Disease','City Return'to return home business tide and rural access to local resources to enhance the convenience of other factors together.