金融发展有效地促进了制造业结构升级吗?

Research on the Impact of Financial Development on Manufacturing Structure Upgrading

目前,我国制造业的结构升级必然要求改变过去单纯依靠生产要素投入数量增长推动产业发展的粗放型模式,转向通过提升资金和技术等资源配置效率的集约型发展模式,而提高资金配置和技术创新效率需要金融体系的支持和推动。金融发展在提高产业部门资本配置效应、催生新产业新技术及选择主导产业两大方面有极大的促进作用,研究我国制造业转型过渡期金融发展与制造业结构升级之间的关系,具有积极的理论和现实意义。文章基于2006—2015年我国69个工业较强的城市区域面板数据,从金融规模、金融效率以及金融集聚度三个方面研究了我国区域金融发展对制造业结构升级的影响。固定效应模型分析发现,金融效率能够有效地促进制造业结构升级,而金融规模与金融集聚度则与制造业结构升级存在负向的相关关系。分析结果表明,地区金融发展虽然整体上能够有效地推动制造业结构升级,但是这种作用主要是通过金融业"质"的发展来推动的,而"量"的发展却相反地起到了逆向的抑制作用。稳健性回归进一步验证了结论的可靠性。进一步优化金融与制造业协调发展机制,引导金融资源更多流入制造业部门,有效地防范制造业"脱实向虚",成为未来制造业结构升级的关键性工作。

nAt present, the structural upgrading ol China s manufacturing industry will inevitably change the growth ol production factors to promote the industrial development of the extensive model, it shifts to the promotion ol capital and technology and other resource allocation elliciency ol the intensive development model. Improving the allocation of funds and technological innovation efficiency needs financial system support and promotion. The financial development plays a great role in promoting the industrial sector capital allocation effect,the birth of new industries and the selection of new industries. It is of great theoretical and practical signilicance to study the relationship between linancial development and the upgrading ol manulacturing structure in the transition period of Chinas manufacturing industry.This paper focuses on the relationship between financial development and the upgrading of manufacturing structure from regional level. A lot of existing literatures analyze the relationship between financial development and the upgrading of manufacturing structure mainly focused on provincial level. Compared with provincial level, using city level as the regional scale could measure and reflect the degree of financial development and the situation of manufacturing industry more precisely. Based on the panel data of 69 industrial cities from 2006 to 2015 in China, this paper analyzes the impacts of regional financial development on manufacturing structure upgrading in China from three aspects：financial scale ,financial efficiency and financial agglomeration degree. Fixed effect model analysis results show that financial scale and financial agglomeration degree can significantly promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure, there is a negative correlation between financial efficiency and manufacturing structure upgrading. The results show that the regional financial development which can promote the manufacturing structure upgrading is mainly driven by the development of the ＂quality＂ of the financial industry. On the contrary,the development of “ quantity” has played a reverse inhibitory effect. When we do the regression again by deleting ten cities ’ data which financial development are unusual like other cities, the results are the same by showing that financial scale and agglomeration degree have significant negative inhibitory effect to raise the proportion of technology-intensive industry but financial efficiency has significant positive effect. Robustness analysis verifies the reliability of the conclusion.Based on the above conclusion, this paper makes the following suggestions. Firstly we should build a coordinated development mechanism between financial development and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. Regional development should focus on financial structure optimization,financial efficiency promoting and financial market sound development as the same time of expanding financial quantity. Secondly the government should value the effect of financial leverage to the upgrading of manufacturing structure, and increase the financial support to the sectors with high productivity or high benefits. Finally the government could guide and intervene the technical innovation projects of policy banks and commercial banks to ensure the development of high and new technology industries. On the other hand, regulate financial market, build a unified financial market with competition order and improve the financial supporting system in the process of manufacturing structure upgrading. All of these could reduce the risk of manufacturing industry to revert to virtual development.