基于终端能源消费的工业部门减排潜力估算——以云南为例

Estimation of Emission Reduction Potential of Industrial Sectors Based on Terminal Energy Consumption——A Case Study of Yunnan Province

工业部门是我国碳排放的主要来源,同时也是减排潜力最大、耗时最长的部门,云南省作为低碳试点省份之一,研究其工业部门减排潜力对于控制云南省碳排放量峰值具有一定的参考意义,并为其他省份低碳发展提供借鉴经验。基于终端能源消费选取17种能源系数(含电力、热力)全面测算2000—2014年云南省工业部门碳排放量。结合经济核算法和情景分析法预估2015—2035年云南省工业碳排放量及碳减排潜力。结果表明:如果没有相应制度及技术制约,云南省工业碳排放将在未来持续大幅度增长,在工业比重调整和节能技术进步的双重作用下,云南省工业碳排放将在2030年达到峰值15 247.19万t,其中节能技术进步造成的碳强度减排始终占据主导地位。根据本文研究结果,针对云南省工业部门,进行合理的讨论与建议。

Industrial sectors are main factor of carbon emission in China but also with the most potential in emission reduction and most time-consuming. As one of the low carbon pilot provinces, research on the emission reduction potential of industrial sectors in Yunnan Province has certain meaning in the carbon emission peak control, and also it will provide some experience for other provinces in carbon emission reduction. In this paper, based on the energy consumption of terminal energy consumption, 17 energy coefficients （including electric power, thermal power） are selected to calculate the carbon emissions of industrial sectors in Yunnan province in 2000-2014. It estimates industrial carbon emissions and carbon emission reduction potential in Yunnan province by economic account-ing method and scenario analysis method in 2015-2035. The results show that if there is no corresponding system and technical con-trol , in Yunnan Province,the industrial carbon emissions will continue to greatly increase in the future. Under the dual role of the pro-portion of industrial adjustment and energy-saving technological progress, industrial carbon emission in Yunnan Province will reach peak 152. 4719 million tons in 2030 and the energy caused by technological progress of carbon intensity reduction will always occupied a dominant position. According to the research results, it is reasonable to discuss and suggest the low carbon development path of the industrial sector in Yunnan province.