不同洪水预报模型在拒马河流域的应用对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Different Flood Forecasting Models Used for Jumahe River Basin

拒马河水系为海河流域防洪重点区域,预报难度大,精度要求高。根据海河流域拒马河水系历史水文资料,分别采用新安江模型、增加超渗的新安江模型、河北雨洪模型和人工神经网络模型,对1956年、1963年和2012年暴雨洪水进行预报对比分析,研究结果表明:4种模型均可应用于暴雨强度大、降雨历时长的历史洪水模拟,洪峰流量模拟相对误差均小于20%,尤以人工神经网络模型模拟精度最高,4种模型在干旱半干旱地区均具有推广应用价值。

The Jumahe River is one of the most important flood control areas in the Haihe River Basin , and it is difficult for flood forecasting. In this pa pe r, the Xinanjiang Model, Modified Xinanjiang Model, rainfall flood model for Hebei Province and BP Neural Network Model were chosen to simulate the different historical floods occurred in the years of 1956 , 1963 and 2012. The results show that the four kinds of flood models can be taken into use when the rain intensity is heavy and the rainfall duration is long 曰 the relative errors of the peak flow simulation is less than 20% , and the accuracy of BP Neural Network Model is the b e s t, all the models men-tioned in this paper can be applied in arid and semi-arid regions.