江西省传染病自动预警系统预警参数调整研究

Study on parameter adjustment of infectious diseases automated-alert and response system(CIDARS) in Jiangxi Province

目的通过对《传染病自动预警信息系统》中江西省常见传染病的时间序列参数进行调整,减少错误预警信息,提高监测效率;同时为以后其他病种的预警参数调整提供科学依据。方法收集整理2010—2014年江西省传染病自动预警信息以及2015—2016年参数调整后自动预警信息。使用卡方检验、fisher确切概率法等方法,分析参数调整对传染病自动预警信息灵敏度、特异度以及阳性预测值的影响。结果 2015—2016年江西省常见传染病共发出预警信息3 980个,年平均1 990个;预警灵敏度为46.67%、特异度为57.90%、PPV为0.53%。与2010—2014年相比,年平均预警信息数下降72.85%;通过Fisher确切概率法比较预警灵敏度,P=0.43;通过卡方检验比较预警特异度和阳性预测值,P<0.001。结论通过调整预警基准值,2015—2016年江西省预警信息数有明显下降,预警特异性以及阳性预测值差异均有统计学意义,有效减少了错误预警信息,提高了监测效率。

Objective To reduce the false Automated-alert and Response information and provide scientific basis for the adjustment of warning parameter of other kinds of diseases in the future,we studied and adjusted the time series parameters of common infectious diseases in Jiangxi Province. Methods Both automated-alert information of infectious diseases（ 2010-2014） and automatic warning information after adjusting parameter（ 2015-2016） in Jiangxi Province were collected. Chi-square test and Fisher＇s exact test were used as statistical methods to analyze the influence of parameter adjustment on the sensitivity,specificity and positive predictive value（ PPV） of Automated-alert and Response information of infectious diseases. Results From 2015 to 2016,among six common infectious diseases in Jiangxi Province,totally 3980 Automated-alert and Response information were sent（ 1990 annually）,the sensitivity,specificity and positive rates were 46. 67%,0. 05% and 0. 53%,respectively. Compared with the years from 2010 to 2014,the annual number of Automated-alert and Response information reduced by 72. 85%,P 0. 001.Fisher＇s exact test results indicated that there was no statistical significance in sensitivities（ P = 0. 43）. However,Chi-square test outcomes suggested that there was significant differences among specificities and PPVs of warning（ P〈 0. 001）. Conclusion Through the adjustment of Automated-alert and Response parameter,there was obvious decrease in the number of Automated-alert and Response in 2015 to 2016.There was statistical significance among specificities and PPVs. False Automated-alert and Response information reduced effectively,and the surveillance efficiency was enhanced.