上海市松江区2008-2015年手足口病疫情及流行趋势预测

Epidemiological features and the trend analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease during 2008 and 2015 in Songjiang distrcit of Shanghai

目的分析2008-2015年上海市松江区手足口病疫情特点及2016年疫情趋势,为制定手足口病防控措施提供建议和措施。方法通过"传染病报告信息管理系统"下载2008-2015年上海市松江区手足口病疫情资料,按照年份、周、人群和地区等特征对资料进行整理,应用季节趋势模型和移动百分位数法预测2016年疫情趋势。结果 2008-2015年松江区共报告手足口病27 094例,年平均发病率为252.64/10万,2008-2014年上海市松江区手足口病年发病率为171.99/10万~372.52/10万,2015年手足口病疫情有所回落,年发病率为206.22/10万。手足口病病例以临床诊断为主,男性年发病率(208.58/10万~431.56/10万)均高于女性(135.48/10万~307.46/10万),以5岁及以下儿童为主(98.73%)。中心街道手足口病平均发病率(161.38/10万)低于乡镇(200.83/10万),其中九亭镇、泗泾镇为高发乡镇。模型预测结果显示,2016年松江区手足口病周发病预测数有夏季和秋季两个发病高峰,具有季节性。结论松江区的手足口病年发病率高于全国平均水平,同时具有人群、地区和季节聚集性特征。今后应加强监测,降低手足口病发病率。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to predict disease trend of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） during 2008 and 2015 in Songjiang, and to provide suggestion for HFMD control and prevention. Methods Data of HFMD in 2008--2015 were retrieved from the national notifiable infec- tious disease information management system, and were organized based on year, week, population and region by using SPSS 16.0 software. The seasonal trend model and the moving percentile method were adopted to predict the disease trend in 2016. Results A total of 27 094 HFMD cases were reported during 2008 and 2015 with the average yearly disease incidence of 252.64 per 100 000 population. During 2008 and 2014, the yearly reported HFMDincidence （171.99/100 000-372.52/100 000）, while decreased in 2015 （206.22/100 000）, they were mostly clinically diagnosed cases. The annum incidence was higher among males （208.58/100 000- 431.56/100 000） than females （135.48/100 000-307.46/100 000）, and over 98.73% cases were children un- der 5 years old. The HFMD incidence in 4 central sub-districts （161.38/100 000） was statistically significant lower than that in 11 towns （200. 83/100 000）. Model prediction indicated that, there was a seasonal trend in 2016 with higher incidence and potential outbreaks during summer and autumn in Songjiang district. Conclu- sions The overall HFMD incidence in Songjiang district is higher than the national average, with obvious populational, regional and seasonal clustering characteristics. Therefore, disease surveillance should be strengthened in order to decrease the incidence of HFMD in Songjiang district of Shanghai.