环境空气中臭氧质量浓度的变化和发展趋势——以银川市为例

Analysis of the variation regularity and development trend of ozone concentration in ambient air——A case of Yinchuan

以宁夏银川市为例,从银川市近4年的臭氧年、季、月、小时浓度变化入手,对以臭氧为首要污染物的污染天数进行分析,同时着重对4年中太阳辐射强度较大的月份5—8月份中首要污染物为臭氧天数,以及以臭氧为首要污染物的轻度污染和中度以上级别的污染天数进行统计分析,说明全年污染天气中臭氧所占比例逐年升高且趋于严重化。根据近年来的温度和湿度的变化趋势,利用一元线性回归分析预测2017年臭氧的质量浓度变化趋势。预测表明,2017年全年臭氧年第90百分位浓度值将上升5%左右。

As the secondary pollutant, ozone in the ambient air is extremely harmful to human health and its influences to air quality is increasing. The occurrence frequency of ozone in recent years as a primary pollutant is becoming more and more seriously. Taking Yinchuan in Ningxia as an example, this article analyzed ozone concentration variation in four years,such as annual change, quarterly change, monthly change, hourly change, and analyzed ozone pollution days for primary pollutants. Finally, the article summarized the concentration variation and development trend of ozone in ambient air in Yinchuan. In addition, according to the change trend of temperature and humidity, the variation trend of ozone concentration in 2017 and the number of possible ozone pollution days for primary pollutants are predicted using monadic linear regression analysis.