序列生产、贸易开放与劳动剩余经济结构转换

Sequential Production,Trade Openness,and Structural Transformation of Labor Surplus Economy

自Lewis(1954)提出二元经济理论以来,很多学者对二元经济国家的结构转换问题进行了研究。大多学者认为二元经济国家的发展最重要的是资本积累,也有一些学者从制度变革、技术进步、人力资本以及基础设施投资等角度对二元经济国家的发展提供了分析思路。本文则认为,在全球分段化生产体系下,二元经济国家也可通过积极参与国际分工来实现工业化和城市化。本文在序列生产链、外包和存在剩余劳动的设定下,构建了一个包含两部门、两国家的一般均衡模型并进行了数值模拟,结果发现:发展中国家中间品贸易自由化有助于其城市化、工业化和福利水平的提高;而发达国家中间品贸易自由化会使发展中国家的城市化和工业化衰退;若两国同步进行中间品贸易自由化会使发展中国家城市化、工业化和福利水平提高。这些研究表明,在全球生产分段化条件下,发展中国家积极参与全球分工会对其经济发展具有重要意义。

This paper argues that a dual country can also promote industrialization and urbaniza- tion through taking participate in international specialization in global sequential production. This paper proposes a general equilibrium model involving sequential production, outsourcing and surplus labour with a dual developing and a developed country to study how trade liberalization of intermediate tasks affects structural change of dual economies. Numerical simulation results show that： （1） Trade liberalization of intermediate tasks in the dual developing country will con- tribute to native urbanization, industrialization and social welfare. （2）Trade liberalization of intermediate tasks in the developed country negatively affect urbanization and industrialization of the dual developing country. （3） Trade liberalization of intermediate tasks in both countries results in the development of urbanization, industrialization and social welfare in the dual developing country. These results imply taking participate in international specialization plays an important role in structural change for a dual developing economy.