东北地区资源型城市经济转型发展波动特征与影响因素——基于面板数据模型的分析

Cyclical Characteristics and Influential Factors of Resource-based Cities' Economy in Northeast China——Based on Panel Data Model

借助H-P滤波和面板数据回归模型分析2000~2014年东北资源型城市转型以来经济发展的趋势特征和影响因素。结果表明:(1)东北资源型城市经济总量保持上升趋势,但存在明显的周期性波动,与国家振兴老工业基地政策和城市产业结构调整历程相吻合;(2)第三产业发展和市场化进程对经济增长的促进作用逐渐增强,而技术进步、对外开放程度等因素作用强度仍然较弱;(3)东北资源型城市转型发展可划分为试验阶段、全面启动阶段和深化阶段,经济转型深化过程中应加强实践探索,激励体制机制创新,构建有利于衡量测度的指标体系。

With keeping a high-speed growth since reform policy, resource-based cities in northeast of China have encountered both social and economical changes caused by internal transition as well as external factors. It is important to strenghen research on resource-based cities development, to provide scientific supports for both resource allocation and policy making. From the pespective of long-run transition, this article uses H-P filter and a panel data model to explore resource-based cities＇ economic spatial patterns and characteristics and investigate quantitative contribution of investment, tertiary industry, marketization, FDI and technique to economic transition in resource-based cities in the northeast in 2000-2014. It turns out that GDP keeps growing while business cycles are volatility which is coordinating with revitalizing policies and industry development. The results indicate that the transitional period falls into three stages, the first stage is from 2000 to 2003, in which the economic growth is mainly attributed to FDI, technology has no positive effects on economic development. In the second stage from 2004 to 2009, the economy is mainly driven by investment, technique development and tertiary industry,in the mean time, FDI had negative influence mostly due to competition disadvantages. Marketization, FDI, technology and serving industry siginificantly improved the economic transition during the period from 2010 to 2014, in which serving industry made the most contribution, investment lost effectivemess. The periodical phenonmenon of resource-baesed cities in the northeast is related to revitalization of the northeast, many social, economic and environmental problems are not completely solved, in other words, transition development in resource-based cities in the northeast has not yet finished, the suggestions are： 1） Improving technology innovation ability to solve transition of development driving force; 2） Innovating the enterprises reform and encourging cooperations among various ownership economy; 3） Decreasing the poverty and increasing residents＇ living level in northeast of China based on buliding infrustructure and eliminating environmental pollution. Firstly,these findings are uesful to integrate tranformation development in the northeast of China in different aspects.Secondly, according to the areal characters and its economic transition status, mathematical models should be explored in different areas. Thirdly, it is essential for the resource-based cities＇ governments to change their traditional planning models, implement well-directed measures and upgrade management systems gradually and moderately by taking a sufficient consideration of the status and trend of both inside and outside circumstances.