影响农户生态环境预期的因素分析——以甘肃省封禁保护区为例

Factors Affecting the Farmers' Expectation on Ecological Environment——Taking the Enclosure-conservation Area in Gansu Province as an Example

生态环境在人们生活中的地位越来越重要,农户对生态环境的预期直接影响到当地人口的流动。甘肃省气候干旱,部分地区出现土地沙化现象。为防止生态环境的进一步恶化,甘肃省在土地沙化地区实施封禁保护项目。以封禁保护项目区的农户为研究对象,在问卷调查的基础上,采用Kendall's tau-b相关分析系数和Logistic回归模型,分析影响农户生态环境预期的因素。研究发现,政府重视程度、封禁实施后土地沙化问题的变化均与农户生态环境预期呈正相关关系,且耕地受损面积是影响生态环境预期的重要因素。

The ecological environment is playing an increasingly important role in people’s life. Farmers’ expectation on the ecological environment has a direct impact on the flow of the local population. The climate in Gansu province is dry and desertification has occurred in some areas. In order to prevent the ecological environment from deteriorating further, Gansu province has implemented the enclosure-conservation project in the desertified land area. Taking the farmers in the project area as the object of study, based on the questionnaire survey, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the farmers’ ecological environment expectations using the Kendall’s tau-b correlation analysis coefficient and the Logistic regression model. It was found that the degree of government’s attention and the change of land desertification after the implementation of the ban were positively related to the ecological environment expectation of farmers, and the damaged area of cultivated land was an important factor affecting the ecological environment expectation.