2017年中国东北及黄淮产区大豆种植面积变化及生产展望

Changes of Soybean Planting Area in Northeast China and the Huang-Huai Region in 2017 and Its Production Outlook

为详细了解2017年主产区大豆种植面积变化情况,掌握主产区大豆种植面积变化的原因等,2017年6月,农业部大豆全产业链监测分析预警团队对中国东北主产区和黄淮主产区共5个省(区)112个县(市、区、旗)农户大豆种植意向进行了调查。结果发现,受2016年国内玉米"市场定价、价补分离"的政策调整影响,主产区大豆玉米比价提高,大豆种植比较效益明显提升,而且2017年大豆生产者补贴预期高于玉米生产者补贴,所调研地区农户种植大豆的意愿明显增强,其中黑龙江省、内蒙古东部地区大豆种植面积增幅较大。预计2017年全国大豆种植面积将达到819.61万hm2。截至6月底主产区天气整体较好,预计2017年全国大豆产量将增加至1 472.99万t,较上年增加10%以上。

In order to get the detail information about changes of soybean planting area in major producing areas and grasp the main influential factors, the Soybean-Whole-Industry-Chain Monitoring and Analyzing Team of MOA investigate the growers’ planting intentions in 112 counties（cities, districts and banners） of five provinces which located in major soybean-producing areas. The growers’ willingness to plant soybean has been strengthened as the maize policy in 2016 changed to ＂market forms price and separate price and subsidies＂,which resulting to soybean-maize comparing price and soybean-planting comparative return increase.Furthermore, in 2017, the soybean producer subsidy was expected to be higher than that of the maize producer,and the willingness of growers to plant soybean in the surveyed area obviously increased. Among them, the soybean planting areas in Heilongjiang province and the eastern region of Inner Mongolia increased substantially. It is expected that in 2017 the national soybean planting area will increase to 8 196.10 thousand hectares. As of the end of June, the weather in the main producing areas was good as a whole, and China’ssoybean yield is expected to increase to 14 729.90 thousand tons in 2017, increased by more than ten percent compared with the last year.