基于广义极值分布模型的变压器寿命概率评价方法

Probability Evaluation Method for the Lifetime of Transformer Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Model

对变压器的寿命进行合理评价,对保持变压器的可靠、健康运行至关重要,是提高变压器抵御风险能力的重要环节。为此,该文提出基于广义极值分布模型的变压器寿命概率评价方法。首先,构建变压器绝缘纸老化的一阶模型,进而,以绝缘纸聚合度为指标,利用基于变压器历史运行数据拟合得到的极值分布函数来模拟变压器的健康运行状态,并基于蒙特卡洛仿真方法统计得到变压器的故障概率随时间变化的趋势,以实现对变压器寿命概率评价。最后,通过典型变压器算例验证了文中所提方法的有效性。

A reasonable evaluation on lifetime is critical to maintaining a reliable and healthy operation status of a transformer, which is also an important link for improving its risk resistance capacity. Accordingly, a probability evaluation method for the lifetime of transformer is proposed in this paper based on a generalized extreme value distribution model. First, a first-order model of insulation paper＇ s degradation is established. Then, with the degree of polymerization as an indicator, extreme value distribution function is used to simulate the healthy status of the transformer based on historical operation data. In order to realize the probability evaluation on the lifetime, Monte Carlo simulation method is used to determine the fault probability of the transformer, which changes over time. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example of a typical transformer.