汇率制度与收入不平等——基于跨国面板数据的研究

Exchange Rate Regime and Income Inequality——Based on a Cross-Countries Panel Data Analysis

本文通过对155个国家1980年至2010年面板数据的分析,研究了汇率制度与收入不平等之间的关系。文献和实证分析表明,较之浮动汇率制,固定汇率制更有助于贸易发展、经济稳定与就业提高,从而能够缩小收入差距,但固定汇率制容易催生低效集权的政府,这又会使得收入差距扩大。相比之下,中间汇率制度能够显著缩小收入差距,即汇率制度与收入差距之间存在着U型关系。进一步研究发现,中间汇率制通过促进就业,缩小了收入差距,且这一传导机制在非OECD国家尤为显著。

This paper analyzes the relation between exchange rate regime and the income inequality, by investigating the data of 155 countries from 1980 to 2010. Literature and empirical analysis show that fixed exchange rate regime helps to develop trade, stabilize the economy and increase the employment rate, thereby narrowing the income gap. But, it also spells an inefficient and centralized government, which widens the income gap. However, intermediate exchange rate regime can not only prevent economic fluctuations, but also restrict the government behavior. Thus, the intermediate regime significantly narrows the income gap, and the relation between exchange rate regime and income inequality is U-shaped. Our further study finds that the intermediate exchange rate regime narrows the income gap by promoting employment, which is especially true for Non-OECD countries.