2013年中国居民预期寿命和去死因预期寿命分析

Life expectancy and influence on disease in China, 2013

目的 系统分析2013年我国不同地区、不同人群预期寿命及主要疾病对预期寿命的影响程度，揭示我国经济和社会发展对居民健康水平及公平性提高的影响和作用。方法 综合利用国家统计局人口普查及国家卫生和计划生育委员会人口死亡登记数据，采用指数模型、漏报调整及简略寿命表等方法，系统估算我国居民2013年人均预期寿命水平及疾病影响程度。结果 2013年我国居民预期寿命为75.8岁，较2010年的74.8岁提高约1岁。其中城市约为77.4岁，农村约为75.1岁，城乡差距约为2.3岁；东部地区约为77.2岁，中部地区约为75.8岁，西部地区约为73.5岁，东西地区差距约为3.6岁。2013年造成我国居民预期寿命损失的前10位疾病分别为脑血管病，缺血性心脏病，慢性阻塞性肺病，肺、气管和支气管癌，道路伤害，肝癌，胃癌，高血压心脏病，下呼吸道感染，食道癌，共造成寿命损失7.97岁。结论 我国居民预期寿命已处于较高水平，地区间差异依然存在，应制定针对不同地区的疾病管理、医疗救治及危险因素干预政策，使预期寿命进一步提高，并提高生存质量。

Objective To analyze the characteristics of life expectancy and influencing factors in Chinese population in different areas and provide scientific evidence for policy-making on disease managements, medical care and risk factor intervention. Methods Based on the national census data from National Bureau of Statistics and the death registration data from the National Health and Family Planning Commission, we used exponential model, under-report adjustment model and abbreviated life tables to estimate the life expectancy and influence on disease in Chinese population in 2013. Results The Chinese life expectancy was 75.8 years in 2013, 1 year higher than that in 2010. The life expectancy in urban area was 77.4 years, while it was 75.1 years that in rural area with the gap between the rural area and urban area was 2.3 years. The life expectancy was 77.2 years in the eastern area, 75.8 years in middle area and 73.5 years in western area, the gap between the east and west was 3.6 years. In 2013, the first 10 leading diseases causing the life expectancy lost were cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, road injury, liver cancer, stomach cancer, hypertensive heart disease, lower respiratory infection, esophagus cancer, resulting in 7.97 years of life expectancy lost. Conclusion The life expectancy in Chinese has already reached a relative high level, while the gap between different areas still exists. Different policies on disease management, medical care and risk factor interventions targeting different areas are needed to increase the life expectancy and improve the quality of life.