养老保险缴费率调整与经济增长:理论模型与数值模拟

The Endowment Insurance Contribution Rate Adjustment and China's Economic Growth:A Theoretical Model and Numerical Simulation

利用一个含有内生的人力资本投资变量的OLG模型,并结合对参数赋值的模拟测算,考察养老保险缴费率调整对经济增长的影响,发现中国当前降低企业基本养老保险单位缴费率是有利于经济增长的。此外,现收现付制下降低养老保险单位缴费率有利于经济增长;部分积累制下,单位缴费全划入社会统筹账户其缴费率下降有利于经济增长,另一方面,若降低单位缴费划入社会统筹账户的比例,或提高划入个人账户的比例,也是有利于经济增长的;基金制下缴费率变动对经济增长没有影响;部分积累制或基金制下个人缴费率的变动也不会影响经济增长。

Based on Overlapping-generations model and reasonable estimate of the parameters,this paper measures and calculates the impact of pension contribution rate adjustment on economic growth about three social security systems.The results show that reducing China＇s current pension contribution rate from enterprises is conducive to economic growth.Meanwhile,reducing the pension contribution rate from enterprises in the PAYG system is conducive to economic growth.Furthermore,reducing the pension contribution rate from enterprises in the Partially-Funded system is also beneficial to economic growth,and the lower contribution rate into social pooling account is more conducive to economic growth.However,the adjustment of pension contribution rate from enterprises in the Fully-Funded system has no effect on economic growth and the adjustments of individual pension contribution rate in the PartiallyFunded system or Fully-Funded system both have no effect on economic growth.