基于灰色理论的矿井涌水量预测研究

Prediction of mine water inflow based on gray theory

针对矿井涌水量受水文地质条件、地质构造、降雨、开采工艺等多种因素影响,致使难以预测的问题,以义马煤田中部矿井水文地质条件为例,采用灰色理论,对大量的涌水量历史数据进行分析,建立了GM(1,1)涌水量预测模型,研究了实际值与预测值的残差与相对误差之间的关系,然后进行了精度检验,将实际值与预测值进行拟合比对,研究结果表明:利用灰色理论模型精度较高,适用性较强,可以作为预报模型使用。

In allusion to mine mine water inflow influence by hydrogeological conditions,geological structure,rainfall,mining technology and other factors,the unpredictable problem was based on the gray geological theory of the mine in the middle of Yima Coalfield,the historical data were analyzed and the GM（1,1） gushing water prediction model was established.The relationship between the residual value of the actual value and the predicted value and the relative error was studied.Then,the precision was verified and the actual value was compared with the predicted value.The results showed that the gray model had high accuracy and applicability,and can be used as a forecast model.