实证分析不同来源科技投入对经济增长的贡献——基于中国与美国、日本研发数据的对比

Empirical analysis of different S&T investment's contribution to GDP of China——Based on the contrast of the United States and Japan's R&D data

本文通过建立长期均衡方程、误差修正模型、向量误差修正(VEC)模型和贝叶斯VAR模型,分析了中国不同来源科技投入对经济增长的影响,考察了不同来源科技投入间的动态关系,通过与美国、日本同类模型的对比,比较清晰地反映出中国各类科技投入对经济增长的实际贡献以及相互影响,从模型层面呈现并验证了中国科技投入中需要关注的问题,为政府科学决策和管理提供依据。

Through the establishment of long-term equilibrium equation,Error Correction Model（ ECM）,Vector Error Correction Model（ VEC） and Bayesian VAR Model,the paper analyzed the influence of different sources of ST investment to GDP of China,investigated the dynamic relationship between these sources. Through the contrast with the same model of the United States and Japan＇s RD data,the study reflected all kinds of ST investment＇s actual contribution to GDP and the influence between each investment.The model also rendered and verified the problems in ST investment of China,that should be pay attention and settled.