中国科技创新驱动经济增长中短周期测度研究——基于景气状态视角

The measurement research of the short and medium cycles of economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation in China——based on the perspective of boom state

本文基于熊彼特的创新周期诠释经济增长周期理论,界定区域科技创新驱动经济增长波动性和周期性概念,构建区域科技创新驱动经济增长波动性和周期性测度模型,利用中国科技创新景气指数和宏观经济景气指数合成中国科技创新驱动经济增长指数,运用该指数对中国科技创新驱动经济增长中短周期波动性特征进行测度研究。研究结果表明:中国科技创新驱动经济增长波动不是随机波动,而是具有一定周期性的波动;周期性波动的时间、振幅、频率、波峰、波谷、波动位势等指标受到外在环境变化影响,具有不等间隔、不重复、不对称等特征;外在环境变化对创新驱动增长的冲击影响是微小暂时的,创新驱动增长的长期趋势平稳;在监测期内,中国科技创新驱动经济增长波动走势稳定,但实际水平亟待提高,科技创新原动力亟待增强。

Based on Schumpeter＇s innovation cycle theory to explain economic growth cycle,it regionally defines the economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation volatility and cyclical concept,and construct the measurement tools and models,and use Chinese scientific and technological innovation and macro-economic climate index to synthesize Chinese economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation index,and use this index to measure the short and medium cycle volatility characteristics of Chinese economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation. The research results indicates： Chinese economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation volatility is not a random fluctuation,but a certain cyclical fluctuation; The cyclical duration,amplitude,frequency,peak,trough,and other indicators are influenced by external environmental changes,showing the unequal intervals,not repeating,,asymmetric features; The effect of volatility shocks from changes in the external environment are temporary and small,and the economic growth driven by technological innovation in the long-term trend is steady; In the monitoring period,the overall trend of Chinese economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation fluctuations is stable,but the actual level needs to be improved quickly,and the scientific and technological innovation driving force need to be enhanced urgently.