市县土地生态-生产-生活承载力测度指标体系及核算模型解析

Theoretical analysis of the index system and calculation model of carrying capacity of land ecological-production-living spaces from county scale

土地同时具有生态功能、生产功能和生活功能,相应地具有生态-生产-生活综合承载力,土地生态承载力、生产承载力和生活承载力是一个相互支持、相互依存的有机整体。土地生态-生产-生活系统承载力是指土地资源与生态环境的供容能力、经济活动能力和满足一定生活水平人口数量的社会发展能力的有机综合体,由处于支持层的生态承载力和处于表现层的生产承载力和生活承载力三部分组成,简称土地"三生"承载力。以党的"十八大"报告提出的"优化国土空间开发格局,促进生产空间集约高效,生活空间宜居适度,生态空间山清水秀"为目标,分析了土地生态-生产-生活综合承载力的基本构成及作用机制,在此基础上,以县级尺度作为测度对象,通过多方案比选,构建了由1个一级指标、3个二级指标、21个三级指标构成的土地生态-生产-生活综合承载力测度指标体系,给出了不同层级具体指标的量化辨识方法;进一步优选出土地生态-生产-生活综合承载力核算的SD情景模型。该研究从理论上旨在为推进国土生态、生产、生活空间集约高效利用提供科学判据,为开展全国市县尺度的土地综合承载力监测预警提供定量的科学依据。

Land holds the function of ecological, production and living at the same time. Correspondingly, it possesses the synthetic carrying capacity of ecological-production-living spaces, and the ecological carrying capacity, production carrying capacity and living carrying capacity are mutual support and interdependence. The synthetic carrying capacity of land ecological-production-living spaces means the capacity of mutualistic symbiosis between the land resource and ecological environment, and economic and social development ability with high standard of living. It consists of a support layer and a presentation layer. The ecological carrying capacity is support layer, and the production carrying capacity and living catxying capacity are presentation layers. Thus, the synthetic carrying capacity of land ecological-production-living spaces is called ＂San Sheng carrying capacity＂ for short. The Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China claimed, ＂We should improve development of China＇s geographical space, and ensure that the space for production is used intensively and efficiently, that the living space is livable and proper in size, and that the ecological space is unspoiled and beautiful.＂ Based on this, we analyzed the basic composition and function mechanism of the synthetic carrying capacity of land ecological-production-living spaces, and a comprehensive index system from county scale is constructed by multi-scheme comparison, which including a primary index, three secondary indexes, 22 three-level indexes. The quantitative calculation method of each index was also given. At last, we proposed a system dynamics model to account and simulate the synthetic carrying capacity of land ecological-production-living spaces. This study aims at providing a scientific criterion for promoting intensive utilization of land ecology, production and living spaces, and providing methods for the land comprehensive carrying capacity monitoring and early warning in China at the county scale.