中美两国铜消耗量对比研究与基于IPAT方程的中国未来铜消耗量预测

Comparative Study of Copper Consumption Between China and the United States and Prediction of Future Copper Consumption in China Based on IPAT Equation

本文以5年为周期分析中美两国单位GDP铜消耗量的变化,探求金属消费与国家经济发展之间的特征关系。1929~2011年间,美国GDP增长率与单位GDP铜消耗量下降率存在反向相关关系,即GDP增幅下降时,单位GDP铜消耗量下降率变大。单位GDP铜消耗量下降的快慢成为美国经济发展速度标志之一。1981~2011年,中国单位GDP铜消耗远高于美国同期水平,且未出现明显的上升或下降趋势。文章利用IPAT方程,估算出未来中国GDP增长率与单位GDP铜消耗量之间的关系,预测出随着中国经济增速放缓,未来中国的单位GDP铜消耗量必将进入下降通道。

Based on the 5 years cycle, this paper analyzes the changes of copper consumption in GDP units in China and the United States, and explores the characteristic relationship between metal consumption and national economic development. In 1929-2011 , there was a reverse correlation between the growth rate of GDP and the decrease rate of copper consumption per unit GDP in United States, That is, when GDP growth drops, the decrease in copper consumption per unit of GDP will increase. The rate of decline in copper consumption per unit GDP has become one of the signs of economic development in the United States. Between 1981 and 2011, copper consumption per unit of GDP in China was much higher than that of the United States, and there was no obvious upward or downward trend. The paper uses IPAT equation to estimate the relationship between GDP growth rate and copper consumption per unit of GDP in the future. The forecast is that as China＇s economy slows down, future Chinese consumption per unit of GDP will definitely go down.