基于专利引文网络的技术范式转换预见方法体系构建——以液晶材料技术的发展为例

Construction of the Prediction Method System of the Technological Paradigm Transformation Based on Patent Citation Network——Taking the Example of Liquid Crystal Materials

面对具有非线性、高不确定性等特点的技术范式转换现象的频繁出现,目前基于线性思维的技术预见方法已无法满足现实需要。对此,本文旨在探讨一种科学有效、具有可操作性的技术范式转换预见方法。阐述技术范式转换的特征及内在动因,通过理解技术范式转换的一般过程,建立技术范式转换理论模型,基于社会网络思维结合专利引文网络构建了技术范式转换预见方法体系,并以液晶材料技术的发展为例进行实证分析。研究结果不仅丰富了技术范式转换的理论研究,也为企业提供战略决策以及行业技术研究方向。

Facing the frequenct emergence of the technology paradigm shift, which is characterized by nonlinear, high uncertainty and so on, the technology foresight method based on linear thinking method cannot meet the needs of reality. Therefore, this paper was to discuss a scientific and effective and practical method to predict the shift of technology paradigm. This paper elaborated the characteristics and internal causes of the transformation of technological paradigm, established the theory model of technology paradigm transformation by understanding the general process of technology paradigm transformation, based on the combination of social network thinking and patent citation network, the paper proposed a prediction method system of the technology paradigm transformation, carried on the real diagnosis analysis by the case study of Liquid crystal materials technology. The results enriched the theory research of technology paradigm transformation, also provided the strategic decision for the enterprise and the research direction for the industry technology.