中国航空业并购重组的潜在收益度量及其政策涵义

Potential Gains and Policy Implication from Aviation Industry Mergers in China

该文通过对我国上市航空公司进行模拟并购,基于规模报酬不变和规模报酬可变两种假设分析模拟并购组合存在的潜在收益,将潜在收益分解成学习或个体技术效应、和谐或范围效应以及规模或尺寸效应,进一步探究并购提升效率的来源。研究表明:三大航之间的并购会带来一定的潜在收益,其中国航和南航并购潜在收益最大,而三大航的整体并购可以提升效率2.72%。三大航中的南航与一些低成本航空公司进行并购时所获得的潜在收益较大,而低成本航空公司之间并购的潜在收益比较有限。该文的研究对航空业并购重组政策的涵义是,政府进一步推进三大航的并购所带来的效率提升是十分有限的,而在局部航线三大航并购所带来的市场势力的增加则会占主导因素。

By simulating mergers and acquisitions among Chinese public airline corporations under two possible scenarios of constant return to scale and variable return to scale, this paper analyzes the potential gains from the proposed mergers. Specifically, the study applies a decomposition algorithm to split merger gains into technical efficiency, scope or harmony effects and scale effects so as to figure out the real sources of merger efficiency. The research indicates that the mergers between the three predominant airlines in China generate certain potential gains. Specifically, China Southern Airlines merging low-cost airlines acquires relatively larger share of the potential gains while the benefits of those low-cost airlines is limited. It implicates that the further M＆A of the three predominant airlines promoted by the government has limited effects on efficiency.