资本账户开放、经济发展水平与汇率制度选择

Capital Account Opening,Economic Development Level and the Choice of Exchange Rate Institute

随着全球化的不断深入,各国逐步开放产品市场与资本市场。我国也不断推进资本账户的开放。那么,为实现本国福利最优,我国应该如何匹配资本账户开放、经济发展水平与汇率制度改革?该文通过构建开放条件下新凯恩斯模型,量化资本账户开放速度、经济发展水平与汇率制度概念,分析三者间的关系。研究发现:(1)在资本账户开放过程中,本国的经济发展水平提高有助于提高本国福利,当资本账户开放速度较慢时,这一现象更加显著;(2)资本账户的开放速度影响本国的福利损失,适当的开放速度能显著降低福利损失;(3)一国在资本账户开放过程中,适当增加汇率弹性,有助于本国福利的提高。

With deepening globalization, China is pushing on capital account opening. This paper composes an opening New Keynesian model to analyze the relations of capital account opening, economic development level and exchange rate institute by quantifying the concepts of all the three. It is concluded as following by numerical simulation and welfare analysis, first, the welfare increases along with the economic development level improving during the capital account opening, and the increase is obvious when the speed of capital account opening is slow. Second, the appropriate speed of capital account opening has an obviously positive effect on welfare. Last, increasing exchange rate flexibility helps welfare increase in the process of capital account opening.