低碳技术创新的测算及其对碳强度影响研究

Impact of Low-carbon Technological Innovation on Carbon Intensity

低碳技术创新被视为解决全球气候变暖问题的最关键工具之一,然而其碳强度抑制效应及影响机理却较少获得实证经验支持。本文基于全球专利数据库,利用专利统计方法,测算1992-2012年全球15个经济体的低碳技术创新水平。事实特征分析发现,低碳技术创新水平、能源使用结构和碳强度在演变规律上存在密切联系。本文进一步提出理论假设,利用中介效应模型实证探讨低碳技术创新的碳强度影响机理。实证结果表明:(1)无论是低碳技术创新,还是细分的清洁技术创新和灰色技术创新,都具有直接且显著的碳强度抑制效应;(2)低碳技术创新和能源使用结构皆为碳强度变化的关键影响因素,且低碳技术创新能够以提升清洁能源使用比例为中介渠道,发挥显著的碳强度间接抑制效应。

Low-carbon technological innovation is well-known because o~ its potential in climate change mitigation, but its impact on carbon intensity is rarely supported by empirical studies. Using a patent- based indicator for innovation, this paper measures the level of low-carbon innovation across 15 economies from 1992 to 2012. Given some stylized facts and theoretical hypotheses, this paper investigates the mechanism of impact of low-carbon technological innovation on carbon intensity. The results firstly show that, the low-carbon technological innovation, and its main subclasses have direct and significant effect on carbon intensity reduction. And the results of mediation effect analysis further show that, the energy structure plays a mediation role when low-carbon technological innovation is affecting carbon intensity; that is, low-carbon technological innovation can enable higher ratio of clean energy use, which can further cause reduction of carbon intensity.