城市电网总量负荷年最大值的双向预测方法

The bi-directional prediction method for the annual maximum of total load in urban network

城市电网总量负荷预测是城市电网规划的基础工作。为了充分挖掘并利用负荷历史数据的更多信息,提出一种城市电网总量负荷年最大值的双向预测方法。该方法基于历史数据分析了电力负荷与用电量的相关关系,建立了负荷-用电比模型,据此求得基于用电量数据的各月电力负荷最大值,并利用这些最大值分别运用线性回归、指数平滑、灰色理论从纵向和横向对目标年的总量负荷最大值进行预测,将所得的六个预测值加权平均作为最终预测结果。实例分析表明该方法是正确的、有效的。

The total load forecasting of urban power network is the fundamental work of urban power network plan- ning. In order to fully tap and use more information of load historical data, a bi-directional prediction method for the annual maximum of total load in urban network is proposed. The method analyzes the correlation of power load and power consumption based on historical data, and establishes the model of load-electricity ratio, hereby obtains the power load maximum of each month by using power consumption data, and then, forecasts the total load maximum of the objective years on the basis of these maximum from horizontal and vertical directions by using linear regression, exponential smoothing and gray theory, it serves the weighted average value of the six predicted value as the final pre- dicted results. Example analysis shows that the method is correct and effective.